Under the Monsoon Mission, Ministry has developed the state-of-the-art weather and climate prediction models, which are now in operational use. These models include models for short range to medium range (1-10 days), extended range (10days to 30 days) and seasonal (up to one season). The models developed under the National Monsoon Mission (NMM) have shown very high skill in predicting important weather events on different time scales during the last 3years.
The overall objective of NMM is to improve the monsoon prediction over India on all time scales and hence it is implemented for the whole country which includes all the States and UTs.
Following are the targets of Monsoon Mission:
- Development of a seamless prediction system using monsoon mission model, on different time scales, like Seasonal (for whole Monsoon season), Extended range (up-to 4 weeks), Short range prediction (up-to 5days).
- Initiate and coordinate working partnership between Indian and foreign institutes to develop a system for prediction of extremes and climateapplications
- Develop and implement system for climate applications having social impacts (such as agriculture, flood forecast, extreme events forecast, wind energy,etc.)
- Advanced data assimilation system for preparing high quality data for model predictions.
Major achievements of NMM during the last three years are:
- Setting up of an advanced prediction system for Seasonal prediction; Extended range prediction and Very high-resolution Short-rangeprediction.
- Commissioning of a Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) for short and medium range prediction at 12km.
- A remarkable improvement in the skill of the forecasts especially in the short to medium range has been noticed.
- The Cyclone track and intensity prediction has also shown a steady improvement over the last threeyears.
- The operationalization of Monsoon Mission dynamical model (MMCFS) to prepare operational seasonal forecast of monsoon rainfall and temperatures during the hot and cold weather seasons overIndia.
- Use of MMCFS and extended range prediction system for preparing regional seasonal forecast outlook for south Asia under WMO recognised Regional Climate Center and South Asia Seasonal Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF) activities.
- Development of an algorithm to monitor and predict the Monsoon Intra-seasonal Oscillations (MISO) and Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) on the extended range.
- Development of an index to predict the genesis and evolution of tropical cyclones and other cyclonic disturbances over the north Indian Ocean.
- Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecast over all the Indian river basin has been operationally implemented.
- Probabilistic (percentile-based) forecast for extreme wind, precipitation havebeen established.
- GFS/GEFS forecasts have been extensively used to provide guidance to Forest fire possibility and also to Renewable Energy Sectors namely, wind andsolar.
Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) has received several project proposals from various International institutes, for funding through Monsoon Mission. The Scientific Review and Monitoring Committee (SRMC) of Monsoon Mission reviewed those proposals and recommended the proposals, which are relevant to Monsoon Mission objectives and useful for prediction of Indian Monsoon and extreme weather conditions.
The research & development and operational (services) activities of MoESin respect of weather and climate related phenomena is being addressed by one of the umbrella schemes Atmosphere and Climate Research – Modelling, Observing Systems and Services (ACROSS).
The entire gamut of weather/climate prediction involves assimilation of meteorological observations, understanding the processes, research and development of dynamical models and providing the forecast services. Each of these aspects is incorporated as sub-scheme under the umbrella scheme “ACROSS” and is being implemented through India Meteorological Department (IMD), Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune and National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting(NCMRWF).
The overarching objective of the Scheme is as follows:
To conduct R & D for improving forecast of weather, climate and other hazardous events in real-time for delivery of a reliable weather and climate service. This requires
- Augmentation of observations and their assimilation into weather and climate models
- Understanding the physical processes through fieldcampaigns
- Developing and running of high resolution models for giving forecast in allscales
- Translating science to service and itdelivery tosociety
- Improving and acquiring the requiredinfrastructure
Sub-schemes: There are nine sub-schemes under ACROSS which are as follows:
- Commissioning of Polarimetric Doppler Weather Radars(DWRs)-IMD
- Upgradation of ForecastSystem-IMD
- Weather & Climate Services-IMD
- Atmospheric ObservationsNetwork-IMD
- Numerical Modeling of Weather and Climate–NCMRWF
- Monsoon Mission II including High Resolution (12km) global ensemble forecast system (NITI Aayog identified activity) –IITM
- Monsoon Convection, Clouds and Climate Change(MC4)-IITM
- Centre For Climate Change Research (CCCR) including Virtual WaterCenter
- Physics & Dynamics of TropicalClouds(PDTC)
- Atmospheric Research Testbeds (ART) for process studies and national Climate Reference Network(NCRN)
- Metro Air Quality and Weather Service(MAQWS)
- High Performance Computing System(HPCS)-IITM
- National Facility for Airborne Research(NFAR)-IITM
This information was given by the Minister of Science & Technology; Earth Science and Health & Family Welfare Dr. Harsh Vardhan in the Rajya Sabha on February 9, 2021.